Warning Lights - How Tesla's Hype is ending

Don't Believe the Hype?

A lot has been said about the hype created by Tesla and the media regarding the past October 9th event, Elon Musk sent the bait and many went after it, making different guesses about what it was, Model S AWD, Model X, Model III? Some other kind of trick?

When the announcement was made, the AWD Model S and a Driving Aid System, many were disappointed with the Next-Big-Deal-That-After-All-It-Was-Not-That-Big.

The same kind of news in a manufacturer like BMW, at best would be just another major AutoShow announcement, among other more important launches.

Sure, Tesla in not any other automaker, it doesn't have a large portfolio and it is scrutinized in the media like no other Auto Brand, but that would be another reason for Tesla to take more attention on the Hype around it.

The recent disinvestment in Tesla made by Daimler and Toyota should be seen in a larger picture, the California-based manufacturer stocks are falling, and many doubts are arising regarding the long-term future of Tesla.


Tesla 2012 - Bright future

When the Model S landed two years ago, one could say that it was years ahead of the competition, not only because it was an electric car like no other, with power and range enough to scare many of the best ICE cars, but the whole concept regarding service, sales, charging stations, among other features, was something completely different.

The competition was caught with the trousers down, still in early stages of development for their electric cars or deciding wether to go full on to plug-ins, and couldn't respond to it, making Infinity even go back at the drawing board with the LE.

When will the X be a reality?

Tesla 2014 - Clouds on the Horizon

Currently Tesla is no longer a North American/Euro curiosity, their sales network is spread across the globe and the Supercharging stations are growing fast across the major markets, with Tesla owners being able to cross continents without any kind of range anxiety.

Sales grew exponentially in two years, with 3.000 units/month now the norm for the automaker, and they are now prepared to jump production two fold, with the help of the upcoming Model X.

It's here that things start to lose some grip, because the timetable for the Model X is delayed for quite some time now, for a car that it would be on sale late this year, the production-ready car is still to be presented and there are no signs of coming soon, so an optimistic view would see it being revealed in December / early January (Perhaps by the time of the Detroit Auto Show), first demonstration units in February/March and mass volume by April/May, if this timetable comes true, the delay won't be that damaging, but if Tesla delays it more than these 6 months, the SUV segment will start to be crowded by Porsche, Volvo, Mitsubishi, etc

Even the Model S didn't had that much updates during this period, if at the time it was launched it was 5 to 10 years ahead of the competition, the gap is now reduced and the competitors are recovering fast, with rumors that in three years time they will be where the Model S is now. And how will be Model S in 2017? It will be probably redesigned, but with funds going for the development for the Model III, don't expect for a huge leap in the refreshed  Tesla sedan.

My favorite rendering for the Model III...

Tesla Model III - Moment Of Truth

It will be with the Model III, that will come the crucial moment for the long-term survival of an independent Gigafactoried Tesla, if it achieves the ambitious goals set by Elon Musk, the battery-production scale will help it become profitable and win those needed funds to add more models to the lineup and assure the long-term profitability.

But, for that to happen, they will have to market it sooner than later, because others are already pushing their EV's for the same kind of product (300 kms range, price in the 30k's USD) in 2016/7, if they can push the Model III to the market before that timetable, they will have a window of opportunity for success, if not, others will eat Tesla's lunch.

...And the LEAST favorite.