After several years of innovative Apple releases, some analysts are predicting a flat 2016 where the world's biggest tech company refines product lines rather than produces the next big thing.
According to news.com.au, Apple’s share price has taken a battering in the past six months, with more than US$ 220 billion slashed from the company’s value as analysts look towards an era of smartphone saturation.
Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty recently predicted that 2016 would be first time that iPhone sales would shrink, dropping by up to three per cent.
Given the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus sold 13 million in their opening weekend, a jump from the 10 million sales for the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus the previous year, a decline of that scale would be a massive turnaround. However the Morgan Stanley grim forecast was matched by other analysts, including Pacific Crest and KGI Securities.
Jan Dawson, chief analyst at Jack Daw Research, was more positive about the iPhone’s future predicting that Apple would continue to grow sales but was pessimistic about the iPad, with the tablet market for all companies struggling as people fail to see compelling reasons to upgrade from their first tablet.
The problem for the year ahead for Apple was that in 2015 it was on the crest of a wave.
After years of rumours it launched its first wearable product, the Apple Watch, leapfrogging Samsung, Sony and others to become the dominant player.
IDC estimates that Apple will ship 21.3 million smartwatches this year. An analysis of the Apple figures suggests the Apple watch added US$ 1.7 billion to the coffers in just six months.
Apple also this year released a revamped Apple TV, a 12-inch iPad Pro aimed at those wanting greater productivity from a tablet, and Apple Music, which after a few months has 8 million subscribers which will grow, music business analyst Mark Mulligan predicts, to 20 million by the end of next year.
And there was the iPhone 6s, which kept a near-identical form factor to its predecessor but added a couple of features in the form of Live Photos (embedded three-seconds of video in every still image) and 3D Touch which adds an extra element to screen navigation by responding to the force of a heavier touch.
But new products don’t come along that often, particularly for the Cupertino-company which doesn’t follow the scattergun approach of its rivals including Samsung which releases a swag of smartphones, tablets and wearables each year. The Apple Watch, released in April, was the first truly new Apple product since the launch of the iPad in 2010.
One prediction you can make about Apple is that someone, somewhere will claim that Apple is running out of ideas.
Tech publication ZDNet ran the lack of ideas headline in 2012 after the release of the iPhone 4s, Forbes ran the same headline in 2013 after the iPhone 5s and last year Quentin Fottrell in Market Watch ran the claim after the release of the iPhone 6.
Argus Insights CEO and Founder John Feland predicts Apple will direct its attentions to the homes rather than just the products used.
"Apple’s classic innovation mode for the past decade has been to enter markets others have already made a lot of mistakes, learn from those mistakes and release a new experience that disrupts everyone's thinking and finally delivers on the promise of that market," he said.
"This method failed for the Apple Watch (though over 10 million units this year is hardly a failure), in that nothing about the Apple Watch really delivered an experience above and beyond what Android Wear was already enabling consumers.
"That being said, a market that is ripe for Apple’s intervention is the smart home.
"If Apple does anything radical next year, it will be to deliver the Smart Home experience everyone else has been promising but failed to deliver."
According to news.com.au, Apple’s share price has taken a battering in the past six months, with more than US$ 220 billion slashed from the company’s value as analysts look towards an era of smartphone saturation.
Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty recently predicted that 2016 would be first time that iPhone sales would shrink, dropping by up to three per cent.
Given the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus sold 13 million in their opening weekend, a jump from the 10 million sales for the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus the previous year, a decline of that scale would be a massive turnaround. However the Morgan Stanley grim forecast was matched by other analysts, including Pacific Crest and KGI Securities.
Jan Dawson, chief analyst at Jack Daw Research, was more positive about the iPhone’s future predicting that Apple would continue to grow sales but was pessimistic about the iPad, with the tablet market for all companies struggling as people fail to see compelling reasons to upgrade from their first tablet.
The problem for the year ahead for Apple was that in 2015 it was on the crest of a wave.
After years of rumours it launched its first wearable product, the Apple Watch, leapfrogging Samsung, Sony and others to become the dominant player.
IDC estimates that Apple will ship 21.3 million smartwatches this year. An analysis of the Apple figures suggests the Apple watch added US$ 1.7 billion to the coffers in just six months.
Apple also this year released a revamped Apple TV, a 12-inch iPad Pro aimed at those wanting greater productivity from a tablet, and Apple Music, which after a few months has 8 million subscribers which will grow, music business analyst Mark Mulligan predicts, to 20 million by the end of next year.
And there was the iPhone 6s, which kept a near-identical form factor to its predecessor but added a couple of features in the form of Live Photos (embedded three-seconds of video in every still image) and 3D Touch which adds an extra element to screen navigation by responding to the force of a heavier touch.
But new products don’t come along that often, particularly for the Cupertino-company which doesn’t follow the scattergun approach of its rivals including Samsung which releases a swag of smartphones, tablets and wearables each year. The Apple Watch, released in April, was the first truly new Apple product since the launch of the iPad in 2010.
One prediction you can make about Apple is that someone, somewhere will claim that Apple is running out of ideas.
Tech publication ZDNet ran the lack of ideas headline in 2012 after the release of the iPhone 4s, Forbes ran the same headline in 2013 after the iPhone 5s and last year Quentin Fottrell in Market Watch ran the claim after the release of the iPhone 6.
Argus Insights CEO and Founder John Feland predicts Apple will direct its attentions to the homes rather than just the products used.
"Apple’s classic innovation mode for the past decade has been to enter markets others have already made a lot of mistakes, learn from those mistakes and release a new experience that disrupts everyone's thinking and finally delivers on the promise of that market," he said.
"This method failed for the Apple Watch (though over 10 million units this year is hardly a failure), in that nothing about the Apple Watch really delivered an experience above and beyond what Android Wear was already enabling consumers.
"That being said, a market that is ripe for Apple’s intervention is the smart home.
"If Apple does anything radical next year, it will be to deliver the Smart Home experience everyone else has been promising but failed to deliver."
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