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Me and my partners from EV Volumes, which  by the way, published some interesting graphs on the last Q4 Europe article, were discussing in this past week how 2016 would be in the EV World, with some forecasts for the main markets and models, and with some EV Sales readers asking for some forecasts here, we decided to put it on paper online and in a year from now we will see how much did we got it right.

2016 Forecasts Jose Roland Viktor
World Total 850.000 850.000 N/A
World #1 BYD Tang Mit. Outlander PHEV N/A
China Total 400.000 350.000 350.000
China #1 BYD Tang BYD Tang BYD Tang
USA Total 175.000 170.000 170.000
USA #1 Chevrolet Volt Chevrolet Volt Tesla Model S
Japan Total 30.000 23.000 38.000
Japan #1 Nissan Leaf Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV
Europe Total 250.000 280.000 280.000
Europe #1 Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV
Netherlands T. 27.500 35.000 35.000
Netherlands #1 Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV
Norway Total 45.000 50.000 50.000
Norway #1 Volkswagen e-Golf Volkswagen e-Golf Volkswagen e-Golf
UK Total 40.000 40.000 45.000
UK #1 Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV
France Total 37.500 42.000 40.000
France #1 Renault Zoe Renault Zoe Renault Zoe
Germany Total 37.500 44.000 35.000
Germany #1 VW Passat GTE Kia Soul EV Kia Soul EV


A few comments, on these numbers, Roland thinks the Outlander PHEV will be the new Global #1, but only if they get the MY17 US launch right. Otherwise he thinks that it's Model S again. 

The same goes in the USA, Roland believes that the Volt will be able to beat the Model S, but isn't 100% sure on that, as a side note, Viktor is optimistic on the Chevy Bolt as he think that it will create an instant impact on the market once it lands later in the year.

Unlike my partners, i think the Nissan Leaf will have a good year in Japan, while Roland is pessimistic on the performance of the Japanese EV market.

Gathering consensus is the fact that The Netherlands will assist a sales slowdown regarding last year, unlike the other large EV markets in Europe.



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