Markets Roundup July 2015

 Tesla Model S vs Competition and Model X Outlook

Model S

While the Model S continues flirting with top spots in several EV Markets, Elon Musk (And common sense), indicates that the real competition for Tesla aren't other plug-ins, but regular Premium Carmakers, like the german Three Marys (Audi, BMW and Mercedes), Lexus, Jaguar, Cadillac, etc.

In the US, the Model S might be ahead of the EV League, but it still falls largely behind their top competitors, selling less than half than the leader Mercedes E-Class (27k vs 13k). In Canada, things get better as the "S" is Second, behind the Merc E/CLS-Class.

But in Europe there are markets where Tesla is making a dent on the Three Marys domination, like in Switzerland, where Tesla sold 199 units, counting 837 sales YTD, it is close to the numbers of Audi A6 (1.159 units), BMW 5-Series (1.183 units) and Merc E-Class (1.007), or in Denmark,  the american car is only 12 units behind the leader Audi A6 and will probably reach #1 next month.

Norway is a whole other case, Tesla is so mainstream that the Model S is #2 in the general ranking...

As for Asia, the only market where the Model S makes an impression is in Hong Kong, leading the full-size class.


Model X

While the Model S has problems to reach high volumes and race their class top sellers, the Model X has a more friendly market to tackle, not only the full-size SUV segment is less dependent from conservative-leaning fleet buyers, therefore it's less brand-minded, making it easier to steal sales from other manufacturers.

Tesla sources say that preorders for the "X" is higher than it was for its sedan sibling, so one might expect that Tesla's SUV will have at least the same demand as the "S", if this year deliveries will be in the hundreds per month, next year sales should take off and rise to similar numbers as the Model S

An interesting question for the future will be if both can coexist peacefully or will the Model X "Cayenneize" the Model S and eat into their sales.

 






Trophy Rooms in the G8 
 
Here are the best sellers throughout the years in the Top EV Markets:

Country
	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015 *
USA	Chevrolet Volt	Nissan Leaf	Chevrolet Volt	Chevrolet Volt	Nissan Leaf	Tesla Model S
China	JAC J3 EV	Chery QQ3 EV	Chery QQ3 EV	Chery QQ3 EV	BYD Qin	BYD Qin
Japan	Mitsubishi I-Miev	Nissan Leaf	T. Prius Plug-In	Nissan Leaf	Nissan Leaf	Nissan Leaf
France	Cit. Berlingo EV	Renault Kangoo ZE	Renault Kangoo ZE	Renault Zoe	Renault Zoe	Renault Zoe
Netherlands	Think City	Nissan Leaf	Opel Ampera	M. Outlander PHEV	M. Outlander PHEV	VW Golf GTE
Norway	Think City	Mitsubishi I-Miev	Nissan Leaf	Nissan Leaf	Nissan Leaf	VW e-Golf
Germany	Smart Fortwo ED	Mitsubishi I-Miev	Renault Twizy	Smart Fortwo ED	BMW i3	VW Golf GTE
UK	Smart Fortwo ED	Nissan Leaf	Nissan Leaf	Nissan Leaf	M. Outlander PHEV	M. Outlander PHEV

Looking at early years, the Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf divided the headlines, with brief appearances from the Prius Plug-In (2012 in Japan) and Renault Twizy ('12 in Germany). A mention for the strong showing for LCV's in France and the initial lead from Think (Remember them?) in the Netherlands and Norway.

In most recent years, the sales trend goes for plug-in hybrids, this year, for the first time, four out of the eight best-sellers are PHEV's, with the Qin ruling in China, the Outlander PHEV in the UK, and the Golf GTE stealing the show in the Netherlands and Germany, a curious fact regarding this last market is that in six years there were five different leaders, making it probably the most entretaining EV Market in the world.

Trophy Rooms in other Markets 

As for the rest of the markets, there is something for everyone:

 

Country
	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015  *
Canada	Mitsubishi I-Miev	Chevrolet Volt	Chevrolet Volt	Chevrolet Volt	Chevrolet Volt	Tesla Model S
Sweden	Volvo C30 Electric	Mitsubishi I-Miev	T. Prius Plug-In	Volvo V60 Plug-In	M. Outlander PHEV	M. Outlander PHEV
Switzerland	Think City	Mitsubishi I-Miev	Renault Twizy	Renault Zoe	Tesla Model S	Tesla Model S
Italy		Citröen C-Zero	Renault Twizy	Renault Twizy	Nissan Leaf	Nissan Leaf
Belgium	Tesla Roadster	Peugeot iOn	Renault Twizy	Volvo V60 Plug-In	Tesla Model S	Tesla Model S
Spain	Think City	Mitsubishi I-Miev	Renault Twizy	Nissan Leaf	Nissan Leaf	Nissan Leaf
Austria	Think City	Citröen C-Zero	Renault Twizy	Renault Zoe	Renault Zoe	Tesla Model S
Denmark	Peugeot iOn	Peugeot iOn	Renault Fluence ZE	Nissan Leaf	Nissan Leaf	Tesla Model S
South Korea			Kia Ray EV	Samsung SM3 ZE	Kia Soul EV	Kia Soul EV
Australia	Mitsubishi I-Miev	Mitsubishi I-Miev	Mitsubishi I-Miev	Nissan Leaf	M. Outlander PHEV	M. Outlander PHEV
Portugal	Nissan Leaf	Nissan Leaf	Renault Twizy	Renault Twizy	BMW i3	Nissan Leaf
Hong Kong			Nissan Leaf	Ren. Fluence ZE	BMW i3	Tesla Model S
Estonia		Mitsubishi I-Miev	Mitsubishi I-Miev	Nissan Leaf	Nissan Leaf	Nissan Leaf
Ireland	Mitsubishi I-Miev	Nissan Leaf	Nissan Leaf	Nissan Leaf	Nissan Leaf	Nissan Leaf
Finland	Think City	Citröen C-Zero	T. Prius Plug-In	Volvo V60 Plug-In	M. Outlander PHEV	Nissan Leaf
Czech Republic	Smart Fortwo ED	Smart Fortwo ED	Peugeot iOn	Nissan Leaf	BMW i3	VW e-Golf
Iceland			Mitsubishi I-Miev	Nissan Leaf	Nissan Leaf	Nissan Leaf
Poland		Mitsubishi I-Miev	Peugeot iOn	Nissan Leaf	BMW i3	M. Outlander PHEV
New Zealand	Mitsubishi I-Miev	Mitsubishi I-Miev	Nissan Leaf	Mitsubishi I-Miev	M. Outlander PHEV	M. Outlander PHEV
South Africa					Nissan Leaf	BMW i8
Russia		Mitsubishi I-Miev	Mitsubishi I-Miev	Mitsubishi I-Miev	M. Outlander PHEV (?)	Tesla Model S (?)
Slovenia		Citröen C-Zero	Citröen C-Zero		Tesla Model S	Renault Zoe

* - Until July

Looking at early winners, the Mitsubishi I-Miev triplets pioneered the EV market in several markets, while in 2012 the Renault Twizy had its Moment of Glory, leading the way in six different markets.

In 2013 the Twizy vanished from the map, replaced by the Nissan Leaf and later by the Outlander PHEV and Tesla Model S.